Experts say predictions that California will soon overtake Wisconsin as the nation's top cheese producer aren't likely to come true.

The Golden State gained on Wisconsin during the last decade. But Dick Groves, longtime owner of the Madison-based trade publication Cheese Reporter, says California plants are maxing out while efforts to boost production in Wisconsin are paying off.

California came within less than 6 million pounds of Wisconsin in monthly production last July. But then the gap started growing again, reaching 30 million pounds in March.

Groves says the quick shift is partly due to two plants closing in California in 2007, while two opened in Wisconsin this year.

California now has 61 cheese plants compared to Wisconsin's 124. The Golden State's plants are larger. But federal and state agricultural officials say they're pretty much operating at full capacity while Wisconsin's could probably make a bit more.