Subtropical Storm Beryl developed yesterday from a wave that originated in the Caribbean earlier in the week. This is already the second named storm so far this season, which usually begins on June 1. Tropical Storm Alberto formed early in the month. With Beryl's development it marks the first time since way back in 1908 that two named storms have formed this early in the season. Below is a radar image taken Sunday morning of Beryl.
Before we talk about the forecast for Beryl, let's talk about what's a subtropical storm? A subtropical storm is basically a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical cyclone. An extratropical cyclone is your average low pressure system we see here in the United States. A lot of times extratropical cyclones will move into warm, tropical waters of at least 70 degrees and given enough time will morph into this hybrid. The extratropical cyclone will drops its fronts and transition from a cold core at its center to a warm core. A warm core just means it's like any tropical system that gets all its energy from warm waters. When a subtropical storm makes that transition to a warm core it then becomes a tropical storm. Subtropical storms usually appear how Beryl looks in the above image. A large doughnut hole in the middle with limited thunderstorms development around its center. These storms can still generate strong winds but they are slower to develop into hurricanes.
Above is the 10am CST update on Beryl. She is packing winds of 60 mph and moving west at 10 mph. That direction will take her into northern Florida near Jacksonville for a landfall later today. There's a lot of dry air surrounding her and the cooler temperatures should keep her as a subtropical storm making landfall. Below is a look at the wind probability of seeing at least tropical storm force winds from Beryl. You can see the highest probability will be in northern Florida and southern Georgia.
Subtropical Storm Beryl will be a rain maker. However, the dry air surrounding her will limit that potential. Areas in northern Florida and southern Georgia can expect rainfall totals around 2-4". As you can see by the track for Beryl, she basically makes landfall and makes a U-turn back for the Atlantic. That's due to the cold front and low pressure system that's moving through the central part of the U.S. Fortunately, the rainfall will be a welcomed site for the southeast that is under a severe and even extreme drought. Some places seeing a deficit of 8-12 inches from early October. Beryl wont be enough to break the drought, but it will make a dent.
Earlier this week in the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Bud became the first major hurricane this year in that area. It packed winds of 115 mph making it a Category 3 Thursday night. It brought tropical storm force winds to Manzanillo, Mexico, but never made landfall. It made a U-turn back out to see. What's significant about Bud was he was the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record for the Eastern Pacific. The hurricane season is off to a fast start in both the Atlantic and Pacific!