More cows lead to higher dairy production last month

Published: Apr. 12, 2021 at 6:15 AM CDT
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EAU CLAIRE, Wis. (WEAU) - April’s 2020-21 U.S. corn outlook is for greater feed and residual use, increased corn used for ethanol production, larger exports, and lower ending stocks. Those estimates are part of the USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report issued Friday. Feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels, to 5.7 billion, based on corn stocks reported as of March 1 that indicated disappearance during the December-to-February quarter rose about 6 percent relative to a year ago. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels. Exports are increased 75 million bushels, based on export inspection data for the month of March that was the largest monthly total on record, surpassing the previous high set in November of 1989. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.30 per bushel, as reported prices through February indicate much of the crop was marketed at lower prices.

The report says U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2020-21 include higher exports, and lower crush, residual use, and seed use. Soybean exports are raised mainly reflecting record exports through the first half of the marketing year. Soybean crush is reduced based on a lower domestic soybean meal disappearance forecast and a higher projected extraction rate. Seed use is reduced in line with plantings for the 2021-22 crop indicated in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. Residual use is reduced based on indications in the March 31 Grain Stocks report. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 120 million bushels, unchanged from the previous forecast. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.25 per bushel, up 10 cents.

Dairy production for 2021 is raised from last month in the report, based primarily on increased cow numbers. The 2021 fat basis import forecast is reduced while fat basis exports are raised on higher shipments of cheese. On a skim-solids basis, the import forecast is reduced on lower imports of milk proteins and several other dairy products while the export forecast is raised on strong gains in shipments of skim milk powders and whey. However, lactose shipments remain relatively weak. Product price forecasts are raised on improving demand in domestical and in international markets. Prices of cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey are raised, boosting Class III and Class IV prices. The 2021 all milk price forecast is raised to $18.40 per cwt.

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