Ag Chat with Scott Schultz - June 12

ALTOONA, Wis. (WEAU) -- The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agriculture Supply and Demands Estimates report forecast released yesterday has 2019 red meat and poultry production reduced from last month as lower forecast beef, pork, and turkey production more than offset higher broiler production. The decline in beef production largely reflects lower steer and heifer slaughter in the second half of the year. Forecast pork production is lowered from last month primarily as the pace of slaughter to date has been slower than expected. The broiler production forecast is raised on recent hatchery data and expected heavier bird weights. Turkey production is lowered slightly on production data to date. The 2020 red meat and poultry production forecast is lowered from the previous month. Production growth for livestock and poultry is expected to be slower as producers respond to higher feed costs. The 2020 beef production forecast is reduced on lower expected steer and heifer slaughter as incentives to add weight on pasture slows the pace of feedlot placement.

This month’s 2019-20 U.S. corn outlook is for increased beginning stocks and imports, sharply lower production, reduced feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Beginning stocks are up reflecting a 100-million-bushel decline in projected exports for 2018-19 to 2.2 billion bushels, based on current outstanding sales and reduced U.S. price competitiveness. Corn production for 2019-20 is forecast to decline 1.4 billion bushels to 13.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2015-16.Unprecedented planting delays observed through early June are expected to prevent some plantings and reduce yield prospects. This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2019/20 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Beginning soybean stocks are raised, reflecting a 75-million-bushel reduction in projected exports for 2018-19 based on lower-than-expected shipments in May and a lower import forecast for China. Although adverse weather has significantly slowed soybean planting progress this year, area and production forecasts are unchanged with several weeks remaining in the planting season. With soybean use unchanged, 2019-20 ending stocks are projected at 1,045 million bushels, down 25 million from the revised 2018-19 projection.

The chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on Livestock and Foreign Agriculture yesterday said the Trump Administration’s trade policies have worsened an already challenging time for farmers. California Democrat Jim Costa said during at the subcommittee’s hearing about the state of U.S. foreign agriculture markets that recently threatened tariffs on Mexico and the recently lifted tariffs on Canada and Mexico hurt farmers, which he said was acknowledged by the Administration’s plans for some addition supports for farmers. He also said trade disputes with China and a lack of an agreement with Japan also have hurt farmers, with trade competitors having gained preferential trade status with those countries. Costa said the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which the Administration pulled out of, was a better strategy to deal with China’s unfair trade practices which U.S. trade officials have known about for years.