A wet end to the work week with periods of rain and a few thunderstorms likely

Our dreary weather continues into this afternoon as clouds remain dominant with periodic rain showers and drizzle. It appears we should see some dry time before a second widespread round of rain and storms arrives this evening. This will come as low pressure and its associated warm front draw close to the area from the south and west. How far north the warm front makes it will dictate how warm we get today, as some differences remain among recent forecast data. Highs will generally range in the 40s and 50s, with a few 60-degree readings not out of the question in the Coulee Region. As mentioned over the past few days, the highest chance for strong to severe storms this evening will be south of I-90, where confidence is highest in the warm front passing through and therefore, some destabilization occurring. There is an isolated risk for those of us south of I-94, though confidence is lower in how unstable the atmosphere will become with the track of the low and warm front. Some of the strongest storms could give us large hail, along with locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts will generally be between a quarter of an inch to an inch, but where thunderstorms do occur, amounts could be locally higher. There is a small chance for some runoff with these storms as the ground is still partially frozen.

Colder air will funnel in behind the system into tomorrow, and we could see a few lingering rain/snow showers on the backside of the low in the morning. Winds will also turn breezier out of the northwest with a tightening pressure gradient from the departing low. Tomorrow will be a few steps down on the temperature ladder as we make it only into the lower 40s before winds flip out of the southwest, allowing us to welcome in the first 60-degree day of the year on Sunday. While we will be nearly 25 to 30 degrees above average, records on Sunday are not in jeopardy, as they are in the lower 70s. We’ll cool down slightly Monday and Tuesday as a cold front passes, with highs in the upper 40s and 50s. A few showers will be in the vicinity on Tuesday before a shortwave trough arrives with temperatures in the 40s both Wednesday and Thursday.